255
FXUS64 KOHX 191110
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
510 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- DRY, COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY. WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S, EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDEST MORNING
EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY WITH LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
- TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN,
EVEN LOWER FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- INCREASING SNOW CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES,
IT'S A RELATIVELY DECENT EVENING. YES, IT'S COOL, BUT IT ISN'T AS
COOL AS IT'S GOING TO BE TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTER WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY -- WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME CHILLY WIND CHILLS --
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER MIDDLE TN, CALM THE
WINDS AND SET THE STAGE FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. TUESDAY MORNING
LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. TAKE TOMORROW TO PREP AND PROTECT PIPES, PETS AND PEOPLE FOR
A VERY HARD FREEZE TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
STILL AREN'T IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP IN THIS TIME FRAME AND I THINK ARRIVAL TIME IS GOING TO
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE JUST RAIN OR SNOW. ARRIVAL
DURING THE DAY LEADS TO JUST RAIN. A WEDNESDAY EVENING ARRIVAL
MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, IN BOTH INSTANCES, QPFS
ARE PRETTY LOW. EVEN WITH AN EVENING ARRIVAL, BOTH LREF AND NBM
SOLUTIONS SHOW A 10% OR LESS CHANCE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN 0.5
INCHES OF SNOW. FOR THESE REASONS, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHAT'S INTERESTING
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THE MODEL TRENDS TOWARDS MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION.
PROBS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS OF ALL MODELS AND
RIGHT NOW, AREAS NORTH OF I-40 STAND AT ABOUT 30% TO SEE MORE THAN
AN INCH (UP FROM 10% THIS MORNING). FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE PLENTY COLD AND PLENTY SATURATED FOR SNOWFALL AND NOT A
MIX, BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF, SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST ON NEXT WEEKEND'S POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER MAKER.
ON TOP OF THE INCREASING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL, THIS SYSTEM IS GOING
TO USHER IN ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. AS
OF TONIGHT, WE COULD BE LOOKING A 3 NIGHTS IN A ROW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 35 15 39 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 30 11 38 25 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 32 9 35 20 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 37 14 41 24 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 32 11 35 22 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 30 9 33 20 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 37 14 40 24 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 36 11 40 23 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 32 14 40 25 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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