460
FXUS64 KOHX 230110
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
710 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 702 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- COLD AND BLUSTERY TODAY AND TOMORROW. FLURRIES ACROSS THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- WARMING UP WITH RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 702 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH STRATOCU DECK PERSISTING. THERE MAY BE A
COUPLE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS THAT PICK UP A LIGHT DUSTING
BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING, WE'LL LIKELY SEE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL
VALUES EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE STRATOCU DECK WILL SLOWLY ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD BLAST IS HERE. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE DROPPING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
MOST AREAS WILL RECOVER ONLY A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.
AS A BIG UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BACK, WE WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH FOR SNOW FLURRIES LATER
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A DUSTING OF FLUFFY FLAKES ALONG
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FROM JAMESTOWN TO MONTEREY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. CONTINUED COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY GETTING IN
THE 30S. PESKY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. AND THOSE
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE STUBBORN FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH ACTUAL LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH INSTABILITY, BUT WINDS WILL BE STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. A BAND OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER, WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONG, GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THIS
SCENARIO IS UNCERTAIN, BUT SOMETHING WE AND SPC WILL WATCH FOR
FUTURE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
MILD WITH NO BIG TEMPERATURE DROPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE PLATEAU,
INCLUDING AT CSV AND SRB. PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AT BNA, MQY, AND
CKV IS AROUND 30-45% OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR, BUT MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR WILL RETURN
AREAWIDE BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 22 37 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 20 35 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 17 32 16 46 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 20 36 18 51 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 19 33 17 46 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 17 32 16 45 / 20 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 20 36 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 20 36 17 50 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 18 34 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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