282
FXUS64 KOHX 230438
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1038 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH ACTIVITY ENDING MONDAY MORNING
- WARMING UP WITH RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SKY CAMS ARE SHOWING THE SNOWFLAKES ARE FLYING OVER THE EAST
TONIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE
LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS SUCH
THAT A COUPLE LOCATIONS ON THE NORTHERN PLATEAU MAY PICK UP A
LIGHT DUSTING BY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK THINS OUT. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGIT MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. THOSE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WITH THE COLD HIGH PARKED OVER US, WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING UP
IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB ANOTHER 10 DEGREES
ABOVE TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SHARPEN NEAR THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL REINTRODUCE MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE'S ANY
INSTABILITY IN REGARDS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW,
THERE DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE INSTABILITY,
BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. WE WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL
BE MILD. THOSE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN LATE THIS EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS
STILL HIGHEST ACROSS THE PLATEAU, INCLUDING AT CSV AND SRB. BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BNA, MQY, AND CKV FOR MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO FALLING AT SRB AND CSV, BUT THIS WILL
TAPER OFF BY EARLY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING, AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
CLOSER TO 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 22 37 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 20 35 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 17 31 16 47 / 20 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 20 37 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 19 33 18 46 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 17 31 16 46 / 30 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 20 36 18 49 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 20 37 17 50 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 18 34 18 49 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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