401
FXUS64 KOHX 231740
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
- WARMING UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
A TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ARE SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE SOUTH TODAY AND THAT WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
BROUGHT FLURRIES AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING, WE
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME
CLEARING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE USHERED IN COLD AIR AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 30S.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WE WILL SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER PUSHING
BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40. WE WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND, HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DIG OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE TN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
FOR RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SHEAR WITH BULK SHEAR OVER 50
KNOTS BUT WE WILL LACK INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THAT WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY MAY BUILD IN OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING BUT DOES LOOK TO REMAIN WEAK. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.50-1.0" IN THE NORTHWEST TO 1.0-1.7" IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND REMAIN
IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND WARM TO
NEAR 70 BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
22KT. PATCHY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 20Z, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SSW. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 25KT AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 36 22 51 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 21 50 41 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 31 16 46 35 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 36 19 51 39 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 33 18 46 38 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 31 17 45 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 36 19 51 38 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 36 17 51 39 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 34 19 49 40 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....13
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