227
FXUS64 KOHX 240447
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1047 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- COLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW-20S.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- WARMING TREND IS IN STORE TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
ALL IS CALM THIS EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. CLOUD COVER IS RETREATING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO, LEAVING BEHIND A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. A
CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER-TEENS
TO LOW-20S TONIGHT, BUT THESE READINGS WILL REBOUND TUESDAY. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA, OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY. WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA, AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS, AND ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WILL BE IN STORE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH
CLOUD COVER ALSO PERSISTING, LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WON'T BE QUITE AS
CHILLY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING, PWATS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. MORE THAN ENOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55 KNOTS. BUT THE LIMITING INGREDIENT IS STILL
INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW (100 J/KG OR LESS)
WHICH GIVES A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. BY THE TIME RAIN COMES TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING, HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL
FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW SPOTS REACHING 70 ON
SATURDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK WILL SCATTER AT SRB AND CSV OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS LEAVING
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE NW WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SSW BY 12Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 22 50 42 61 / 0 0 0 60
CLARKSVILLE 21 50 41 59 / 0 0 10 30
CROSSVILLE 16 46 36 54 / 0 0 10 70
COLUMBIA 19 51 39 60 / 0 0 0 50
COOKEVILLE 18 46 38 55 / 0 0 10 70
JAMESTOWN 16 45 37 54 / 0 0 10 60
LAWRENCEBURG 19 50 39 60 / 0 0 0 50
MURFREESBORO 18 50 40 60 / 0 0 0 60
WAVERLY 19 49 40 59 / 0 0 0 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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