043
FXUS64 KOHX 250028
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- DRY AND MILD WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THE REST OF TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH RECENT
OBS INDICATING 20-25 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL
ALSO KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP US
NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE TO
START YOUR WEDNESDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WITH WHAT'S
WRITTEN BELOW. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND INTO THURSDAY, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
AFTER A COUPLE OF VERY COLD DAYS, TEMPERATURES WERE REBOUNDING
THIS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE WARMING IS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS,
REACHING 25 MPH AT TIMES.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS. IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THICKENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.
ON WEDNESDAY, A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT
APPROACHES TN, IT WILL MEET UP WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY IN THE EVENING
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. WE WILL STAY ON
THE MILD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
RAIN WILL BE FALLING AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS. THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED DOWNPOURS AND
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
QUITE STRONG, BUT SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LOW, SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS. THE LATEST NBM RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
A RANGE OF 0.50" NORTHWEST TO 1.25" SOUTHEAST. THIS CONTINUES A
LOWERING TREND FOR RAINFALL AS MODELS SHOW A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAN ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL,
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR AN AREA-WIDE SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH
LOWER 70S FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO
WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE SSW TODAY. LOOK FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, AND ALSO LLWS WILL
FURTHER DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW
SITUATED TO OUR NORTHWEST. WE DO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER TO THE
MID STATE, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 41 59 47 61 / 0 40 90 70
CLARKSVILLE 41 58 45 58 / 0 30 70 60
CROSSVILLE 36 52 45 58 / 10 40 90 70
COLUMBIA 39 60 50 62 / 0 30 90 80
COOKEVILLE 38 54 46 58 / 10 40 90 70
JAMESTOWN 37 52 44 57 / 10 30 90 70
LAWRENCEBURG 39 58 50 62 / 0 30 90 80
MURFREESBORO 40 59 49 61 / 0 40 90 80
WAVERLY 41 58 47 59 / 0 30 80 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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