671
FXUS64 KOHX 252346
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH
A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS IS BRINGING SOME
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LOOSEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE THOSE GUSTS
SUBSIDE. OUR MAIN FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG AND BRING US A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS
ON RADAR MAINLY TO OUR NORTH ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. SOUNDING
SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND THAT IS KEEPING MUCH
OF THIS RAIN FROM HITTING THE GROUND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE SOUNDING PROFILE
MOISTEN. LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM AND WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY MOVE OVER MIDDLE TN. RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 7 AM AND ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-24, NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. RAIN TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40" IN THE NORTHWEST TO 0.50-1.50" ALONG
I-40 AND 0.25-0.75" FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STRONG
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH
COLDER AIR SOUTH. ITS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT COLD AIR WILL
MAKE IT. IF WE SEE THE COOLER AIR MAKE IT HERE HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S, IF THE THE WARMER AIR WINS OUT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLE AND
UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH SOME TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
TAFS REFLECT A MESSY EVENING OF WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID STATE, AND THIS IS
PROVIDING BOTH THE FOCUSING AND THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, AND EVEN INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SO LOOK FOR LONG
STRETCHES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY COMES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND BRINGS GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 48 61 41 66 / 100 50 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 44 58 38 66 / 90 30 0 0
CROSSVILLE 45 58 40 63 / 100 60 10 0
COLUMBIA 49 62 42 66 / 90 60 10 0
COOKEVILLE 46 58 40 63 / 100 50 10 0
JAMESTOWN 44 56 37 62 / 100 50 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 49 63 43 66 / 90 70 20 0
MURFREESBORO 49 62 41 66 / 100 60 10 0
WAVERLY 47 59 40 66 / 90 40 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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