254
FXUS64 KOHX 260022
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING. THE 12Z
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT THE
SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS, BUT AS THE DATA FOR THE 00Z SOUNDING COMES
IN THIS EVENING, IT IS SHOWING IMPROVING MOISTURE VALUES. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND WHAT'S WRITTEN BELOW.
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ABLE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, BUT STILL NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS WILL FAVOR THE EAST. HREF HIGHLIGHTS THE CORRIDOR FROM
COOKEVILLE TO CROSSVILLE FOR HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OVER 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN WHICH IS AROUND 50-80%. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF THE RAIN EXITING
AROUND 9AM, LEAVING BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH
A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS IS BRINGING SOME
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LOOSEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE THOSE GUSTS
SUBSIDE. OUR MAIN FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG AND BRING US A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS
ON RADAR MAINLY TO OUR NORTH ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. SOUNDING
SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND THAT IS KEEPING MUCH
OF THIS RAIN FROM HITTING THE GROUND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE SOUNDING PROFILE
MOISTEN. LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM AND WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY MOVE OVER MIDDLE TN. RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 7 AM AND ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-24, NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. RAIN TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40" IN THE NORTHWEST TO 0.50-1.50" ALONG
I-40 AND 0.25-0.75" FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STRONG
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH
COLDER AIR SOUTH. ITS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT COLD AIR WILL
MAKE IT. IF WE SEE THE COOLER AIR MAKE IT HERE HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S, IF THE THE WARMER AIR WINS OUT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLE AND
UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH SOME TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
TAFS REFLECT A MESSY EVENING OF WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID STATE, AND THIS IS
PROVIDING BOTH THE FOCUSING AND THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, AND EVEN INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SO LOOK FOR LONG
STRETCHES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY COMES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND BRINGS GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 48 60 38 66 / 100 50 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 44 58 35 66 / 100 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 45 58 39 63 / 100 80 10 0
COLUMBIA 50 61 39 66 / 100 70 10 0
COOKEVILLE 46 57 38 63 / 100 60 10 0
JAMESTOWN 43 55 36 62 / 100 50 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 50 61 40 66 / 90 70 20 0
MURFREESBORO 49 61 39 66 / 100 60 10 0
WAVERLY 46 60 38 66 / 100 30 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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