899
FXUS64 KOHX 010323
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
923 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 918 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF MIDDLE TN. SOUTH 1/3 ONLY A LOW CHANCE.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION PRESENTS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHILE MIDDLE TN IS ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES AND LOTS OF STARS THIS
EVENING, THERE IS ACTUALLY A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST. DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN OHIO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI, THIS BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOR SOME VERY WEAK
REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR. HOWEVER, IT'S STINKIN' DRY OUT THERE. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS IN KY WHERE THESE ECHOES ARE LOCATED RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 DEGREES AND IT'S LIKELY ANYTHING WE SEE ON RADAR ISN'T MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND. FORTUNATELY, OUR TD DEPRESSIONS ARE THE SAME HERE
AT HOME. FOR THIS REASON, I'M GOING TO WITHHOLD DROPPING AT 20 POP
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND AS A RESULT
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY TO BE 8-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY. STILL, IT'S GOING TO BE ANOTHER GREAT DAY.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES, WHEN WILL IT RAIN? CONSENSUS IS PRETTY
GOOD THAT WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY. THAT SAID, I DON'T KNOW THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
THE RAIN. THOSE CLOSER TO THE AL/TN STATE LINE COULD CATCH A
SHOWER, BUT EVEN IF THEY DO, IT WON'T BE MUCH. THE BULK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE MID-STATE
AND EVEN THEN, QPFS SHOULD BE 1/4" OR LESS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, MIDDLE TN
BECOMES WARM-SECTORED STARTING TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FIRMLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE SECOND
HALF OF THE THIS WEEK IS GOING TO BE WARM. REAL. WARM. I MEAN TO THE
POINT OF US POTENTIALLY SEEING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES AT BNA
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS WEEK. OF COURSE, THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKE THAT, WE HAVE TO BE EXPECTING STORMS,
RIGHT? YOU'D THINK SO. THE CATCH THIS WEEK IS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. DEPENDING WHAT IT ENDS UP DOING,
THE BULK OF STORMS MAY VERY WELL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BE
THE KEY TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IF THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AT ALL AND ALLOWS STORMS INTO THE AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS CLOSE TO 60, THINGS
COULD GET SPICY. RIGHT NOW, THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO PICK SPECIFIC DAY WHERE THIS MIGHT HAPPEN, SO
THE NEED WILL BE TO WATCH THE FORECAST CLOSELY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONE POTENTIAL
RESULT COULD BE OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SEEING MULTIPLE DAYS OF
RAIN, LEADING TO A FLOOD THREAT BY NEXT WEEKEND, SO INTERESTS IN
THIS AREA WILL WANT TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION. BOTTOM LINE,
EVERYONE WILL BE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND REMAIN 10 KTS OR
LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 68 46 66 / 10 0 40 30
CLARKSVILLE 46 62 43 60 / 20 10 60 70
CROSSVILLE 45 66 45 61 / 0 0 30 10
COLUMBIA 47 70 48 69 / 0 0 40 10
COOKEVILLE 47 65 45 62 / 10 0 40 30
JAMESTOWN 45 62 41 58 / 10 0 40 40
LAWRENCEBURG 47 71 49 70 / 0 0 30 10
MURFREESBORO 46 69 48 69 / 0 0 40 10
WAVERLY 48 65 47 65 / 10 0 50 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....UNGER
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