133
FXUS64 KOHX 011640
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1040 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF MIDDLE TN. SOUTH 1/3 ONLY A LOW CHANCE.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION PRESENTS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT COLD BY
ANY MEANS. THE FRONT WON'T COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
OZARKS THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON MONDAY. THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH RAIN TOTALS OF 1/4" OR LESS. THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH ACTIVITY MORE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT SETTING US UP FOR A WARM REST OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RESPONDING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. THE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB AS WE GET INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA. WITH THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTH FOR AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY
INCREASE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST PART
OF THE CWA. THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, WE REMAIN VERY WARM. IN FACT,
FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. NBM IS SHOWING
ABOUT A 40-70% OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES WEST OF THE PLATEAU. THE
RECORD AT BNA FOR MARCH 6 IS 83 SET IN 1910. WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THAT.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH OUR
UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND MORE ACTIVE. A FRONT BOUNDARY
WILL SAG CLOSER TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO LOVE THIS WARMER WEATHER
IS THAT FRONT WILL NOT REALLY AFFECT THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
MOVING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AS WINDS BECOME N 5-10KT.
A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
06Z. CKV WILL DROP TO MVFR AROUND 09Z. BNA AND OTHER SITES WILL
FALL TO MVFR WITH -SHRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
NORTH TO MAINLY EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 47 67 53 / 0 60 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 62 43 59 51 / 0 80 70 10
CROSSVILLE 66 45 61 48 / 10 50 40 10
COLUMBIA 70 49 70 54 / 0 40 30 0
COOKEVILLE 64 45 62 52 / 10 60 50 10
JAMESTOWN 63 41 60 49 / 10 60 60 10
LAWRENCEBURG 71 49 70 53 / 0 40 20 0
MURFREESBORO 69 48 67 54 / 0 50 40 10
WAVERLY 65 46 63 54 / 0 60 60 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....13
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