015
FXUS64 KOHX 162333
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AND ADJACENT AREAS UNTIL 7 P.M. THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1"+ ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LESSER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WILL WAKE UP TO READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
TOMORROW MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE ALMOST AS COLD,
BUT THEN WE WILL WARM UP QUICKLY, WITH SPRINGTIME WEATHER
RETURNING BY THURSDAY AND STAYING WITH US FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
- AFTER TODAY'S WINTRY WEATHER, THERE ARE NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
LESS THAN 12 HOURS AFTER A TORNADO WATCH WAS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS. ACCUMULATION REPORTS THAT
WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED INDICATE THAT THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE BECOMING A REALITY. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF
1" ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR, WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING EVEN MORE. THE
MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE UP TO ~800 MB, AND
JUDGING BY THE CURRENT REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY, THERE'S PROBABLY EVEN MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN AREAS TO OUR EAST. WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS
LONG SINCE MOVED OFF, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO COME
THROUGH, SO THE COMBINATION OF SHARP COLD ADVECTION, LEFTOVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE ARE
PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SNOWFALL THAT WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE BULK OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THESE WILL BE THE
COLDEST READINGS WE WILL EXPERIENCE. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER
COLD ONE, BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE LESS WIND.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT'S READINGS, BUT AFTER THAT, WE'LL RECOVER QUICKLY. WE DO
EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO COME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, SO WE'RE FORECASTING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AS A
RESULT, BUT WE'LL GET BACK TO THE SUNNY SIDE OF LIFE BY THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH MORE SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES. AND THEN WE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AFTER TODAY, THERE
AREN'T ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
BNA, MQY, AND CKV ARE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD NOW WITH VFR WEATHER.
JUST SOME LINGERING CEILINGS ~050 AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY CALM THIS EVENING. A PASSING SNOW FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED, LEFT OUT OF
TAF. VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE THREE TERMINALS WITH CONTINUED
NW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CLEARING SKIES. BNA TAF REFLECTS A
CHANGE TO LIGHT S WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SRB AND CSV ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIG/VIS. THIS MAY PERSIST FOR THE EVENING HOURS BUT PRECIP
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE BY ~06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST AT CSV BY MID TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 25 42 31 60 / 10 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 23 40 30 61 / 0 0 20 10
CROSSVILLE 20 35 22 50 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 23 42 28 59 / 0 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 23 37 25 52 / 10 10 10 10
JAMESTOWN 20 35 22 50 / 20 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 23 42 28 58 / 0 0 10 0
MURFREESBORO 24 42 27 58 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 22 41 30 60 / 0 0 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ010-
011-031>034-064>066-077>080.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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