691
FXUS64 KOHX 162347
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- SNOW SHOWERS END TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING
IN. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT.
- COOL AGAIN TUESDAY WITH BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
SNOW FLAKES CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN THIS
EVENING, BUT ARE DECREASING IN INTENSITY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE COLD THAT SETTLES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT WITH WITH A BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WIND. BY 7AM TUESDAY, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, SO BUNDLE UP ON YOUR WAY OUT THE
DOOR TOMORROW! AS THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ALL
THIS WILD WEATHER SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TOMORROW, WE'LL SEE A
GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WILL REMAIN CHILLY
WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
LESS THAN 12 HOURS AFTER A TORNADO WATCH WAS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS. ACCUMULATION REPORTS THAT
WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED INDICATE THAT THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE BECOMING A REALITY. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF
1" ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR, WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING EVEN MORE. THE
MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE UP TO ~800 MB, AND
JUDGING BY THE CURRENT REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY, THERE'S PROBABLY EVEN MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN AREAS TO OUR EAST. WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS
LONG SINCE MOVED OFF, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO COME
THROUGH, SO THE COMBINATION OF SHARP COLD ADVECTION, LEFTOVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE ARE
PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SNOWFALL THAT WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE BULK OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THESE WILL BE THE
COLDEST READINGS WE WILL EXPERIENCE. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER
COLD ONE, BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE LESS WIND.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT'S READINGS, BUT AFTER THAT, WE'LL RECOVER QUICKLY. WE DO
EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO COME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, SO WE'RE FORECASTING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AS A
RESULT, BUT WE'LL GET BACK TO THE SUNNY SIDE OF LIFE BY THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH MORE SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES. AND THEN WE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AFTER TODAY, THERE
AREN'T ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
BNA, MQY, AND CKV ARE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD NOW WITH VFR WEATHER.
JUST SOME LINGERING CEILINGS ~050 AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY CALM THIS EVENING. A PASSING SNOW FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED, LEFT OUT OF
TAF. VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE THREE TERMINALS WITH CONTINUED
NW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CLEARING SKIES. BNA TAF REFLECTS A
CHANGE TO LIGHT S WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SRB AND CSV ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIG/VIS. THIS MAY PERSIST FOR THE EVENING HOURS BUT PRECIP
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE BY ~06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST AT CSV BY MID TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 25 42 31 60 / 10 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 23 40 30 61 / 0 0 20 10
CROSSVILLE 20 35 22 50 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 23 42 28 59 / 0 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 23 37 25 52 / 10 10 10 10
JAMESTOWN 20 35 22 50 / 20 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 23 42 28 58 / 0 0 10 0
MURFREESBORO 24 42 27 58 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 22 41 30 60 / 0 0 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ010-
011-031>034-064>066-077>080.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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