165
FXUS64 KOHX 170427
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS.
- COOL AGAIN TUESDAY WITH BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY, BUT THINGS DRY OUT AND
WARM BACK UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING WEST OF I-65
TONIGHT, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS. THE COLD WILL
CERTAINLY BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AS
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW 20S OVERNIGHT. A HARD
FREEZE WILL IMPACT ALL OF MIDDLE TN WITH THESE TEMPS, AND BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS.
IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT UNCOMFORTABLE TUESDAY MORNING, SO BE SURE TO
BUNDLE UP ON YOUR WAY OUT THE DOOR! COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AS MIDDLE TN REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT, KEEPING THE COLD TEMPERATURES AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S FOR MOST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.
A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. RIGHT
NOW, THIS POSSIBILITY LOOKS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES, BUT IF THE TRACK SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, MORE OF
MIDDLE TN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP. PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE 40S
BY THE POINT PRECIP BEGINS. THE PLATEAU HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING SNOW, THOUGH CAMS ARE NOT YIELDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
HELP SQUEEZE SOME MORE SNOW OUT, BUT AS OF NOW, NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND PRECIP WOULD END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MIDDLE TN WILL RESIDE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, SQUEEZED RIGHT UP AGAINST AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR PASSING CLOUDS AND
INSTANCES OF VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES, BUT OUR WEATHER LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY AND WARM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
A GRADUAL PUSH EAST. I KNOW IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE RIGHT NOW WITH
THIS SUDDEN COLD SHOCK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE
70S/LOW 80S RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
BNA, MQY, AND CKV ARE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD NOW WITH VFR WEATHER.
JUST SOME LINGERING CEILINGS ~050 AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY CALM THIS EVENING. A PASSING SNOW FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED, LEFT OUT OF
TAF. VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE THREE TERMINALS WITH CONTINUED
NW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CLEARING SKIES. BNA TAF REFLECTS A
CHANGE TO LIGHT S WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SRB AND CSV ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIG/VIS. THIS MAY PERSIST FOR THE EVENING HOURS BUT PRECIP
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE BY ~06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST AT CSV BY MID TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 25 41 31 56 / 0 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 23 40 30 58 / 0 0 20 10
CROSSVILLE 20 35 22 47 / 0 0 10 20
COLUMBIA 23 43 28 57 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 23 36 25 48 / 10 0 10 20
JAMESTOWN 20 35 22 47 / 10 0 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 23 42 28 56 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 24 41 27 55 / 0 0 10 10
WAVERLY 22 40 29 58 / 0 0 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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