199
FXUS64 KOHX 171112
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
612 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS.
- COOL AGAIN TUESDAY WITH BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY, BUT THINGS DRY OUT AND
WARM BACK UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING WEST OF I-65
TONIGHT, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS. THE COLD WILL
CERTAINLY BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AS
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW 20S OVERNIGHT. A HARD
FREEZE WILL IMPACT ALL OF MIDDLE TN WITH THESE TEMPS, AND BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS.
IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT UNCOMFORTABLE TUESDAY MORNING, SO BE SURE TO
BUNDLE UP ON YOUR WAY OUT THE DOOR! COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AS MIDDLE TN REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT, KEEPING THE COLD TEMPERATURES AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S FOR MOST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.
A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. RIGHT
NOW, THIS POSSIBILITY LOOKS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES, BUT IF THE TRACK SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, MORE OF
MIDDLE TN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP. PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE 40S
BY THE POINT PRECIP BEGINS. THE PLATEAU HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING SNOW, THOUGH CAMS ARE NOT YIELDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
HELP SQUEEZE SOME MORE SNOW OUT, BUT AS OF NOW, NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND PRECIP WOULD END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MIDDLE TN WILL RESIDE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, SQUEEZED RIGHT UP AGAINST AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR PASSING CLOUDS AND
INSTANCES OF VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES, BUT OUR WEATHER LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY AND WARM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
A GRADUAL PUSH EAST. I KNOW IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE RIGHT NOW WITH
THIS SUDDEN COLD SHOCK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE
70S/LOW 80S RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 KTS AFTER 15Z
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 22Z AND TURN TO
THE SSE AFTER 03Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER AT
CKV/BNA/MQY AFTER 06Z BUT NO IMPACTS TO CIGS OR VIS ARE EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AT BNA AFTER 18/12Z
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING BY 18/15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 40 31 57 40 / 0 30 30 0
CLARKSVILLE 40 30 59 41 / 0 40 20 0
CROSSVILLE 35 22 48 33 / 10 10 30 0
COLUMBIA 42 29 58 37 / 0 10 20 0
COOKEVILLE 36 26 50 36 / 10 20 30 0
JAMESTOWN 34 22 48 33 / 10 20 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 42 29 56 37 / 0 10 20 0
MURFREESBORO 41 28 56 37 / 0 20 30 0
WAVERLY 41 30 59 41 / 0 40 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....REAGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page