805
FXUS64 KOHX 171614
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1114 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TONIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
TUESDAY BEGAN WITH A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA. DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS. SCATTERED FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
ADDING TO THE REMINDER THAT WINTER IS NOT DONE JUST YET.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH A CHILLY WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE. COLD,
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE AREA MOST OF TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THE PLATEAU HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOWFLAKES, BUT SHORT-
RAGE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
ANYWHERE. PROBABILITIES ARE JUST 20 TO 30 PERCENT, SO MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE JUST A PASSING SPRINKLE OR FLURRY WITH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE FOR WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO REBOUND AS SOUTH BREEZES KICK IN AND SKIES CLEAR OUT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A BIG
WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING EPISODES OF
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF VERY LOW SHOWER CHANCES, MAINLY
FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND.
STARTING NEXT WORK WEEK, MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE AREA BY MONDAY, BUT SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY REGARDING HOW COLD
AND HOW LONG ANY COLDER AIR WILL STICK AROUND. GENERALLY, MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY EXTREME COLD OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 KTS AFTER 15Z
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 22Z AND TURN TO
THE SSE AFTER 03Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER AT
CKV/BNA/MQY AFTER 06Z BUT NO IMPACTS TO CIGS OR VIS ARE EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AT BNA AFTER 18/12Z
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING BY 18/15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 40 31 58 41 / 0 20 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 40 31 59 41 / 0 30 20 0
CROSSVILLE 35 24 48 33 / 0 10 30 0
COLUMBIA 42 30 58 38 / 0 10 20 0
COOKEVILLE 36 27 50 37 / 0 20 30 0
JAMESTOWN 34 25 48 34 / 0 10 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 42 29 56 39 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 41 29 56 39 / 0 10 30 0
WAVERLY 41 31 59 42 / 0 30 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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