053
FXUS64 KOHX 200522
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (<30%) SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (<30%) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT, THEN COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
A BROAD RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS
WHICH IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STABLE WEATHER TO
MIDDLE TN. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE EAST COAST
WHICH MEANS A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. ONE THING THAT IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT IN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE NEAR THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TO GET SOME SHOWERS OR A STORM
GOING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS HAVE INCREASED AS A
RESULT, BUT MOST AREAS APPEAR TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE WE'LL ENJOY
WARM AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH A STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND.
IN FACT, WE MAY FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS THAT DAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
COOLER, MORE SEASONAL WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE
FOR RAIN PERSIST IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW AND INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 81 58 84 58 / 0 10 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 81 58 82 58 / 0 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 72 55 77 55 / 0 10 30 30
COLUMBIA 80 57 84 58 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 73 55 77 57 / 0 10 30 30
JAMESTOWN 73 55 77 55 / 10 10 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 78 56 82 58 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 79 56 83 58 / 0 10 20 20
WAVERLY 80 58 82 60 / 0 10 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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