740
FXUS64 KOHX 202331
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- WARM WEEKEND WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE (<30%) SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER
(STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS DRY AND STABLE THIS EVENING AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/SUNSHINE GOT MUCH OF THE AREA (WEST OF THE
PLATEAU) UP INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM
DAY TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF I-65
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SPRING HAS OFFICIALLY AND BOLDLY ARRIVED TODAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
WARM SOUTH BREEZES. TN WAS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A POWERFUL,
SPRAWLING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SWELTERING SOUTHWEST STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR WX WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND, BUT
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL SKIRT THE RIDGE PROVIDING LOW CHANCES
(LOW COVERAGE) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
REGARDING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH RECORDS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
BNA
SATURDAY FORECAST 83, RECORD HIGH 89 FROM 1907, NORMAL 64
SUNDAY FORECAST 86, RECORD HIGH 88 FROM 1907, NORMAL 65
CSV
SATURDAY FORECAST 77, RECORD HIGH 78 FROM 2017, NORMAL 57
SUNDAY FORECAST 81, RECORD HIGH 78 FROM 2011, NORMAL 58
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES, THE FIRST WEAK WAVE WILL BRING LESS THAN 30
PERCENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
MOST OF THAT WILL BE EAST OF I-65. THAT MEANS MOST PLACES WILL STAY
DRY. ANY SHOWERS OR STORM THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.
THE NEXT CHANCE WILL COME WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM
PARAMETERS LOOK THREATENING TO OUR NORTH WITH AN SPC RISK AREA
FOCUSED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. ANY STORMS THAT COME DOWN OUR WAY
SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE TRAILING LINE AND WILL ARRIVE AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN. STILL, SOME REMNANT STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY LINGERING STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AGAIN, COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK A BIT FOR NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A LITTLE, SO
THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED WITH AT LEAST LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS
DIVERGE WITH HEIGHTS, SO OUR TEMPERATURES SHOW 20+ DEGREE RANGES
IN THE ENSEMBLES. REGARDLESS, NOTHING VERY EXTREME IS IN THE
FORECAST AND NO HAZARDOUS WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THAT IS
ALWAYS GOOD NEWS THIS TIME OF YEAR!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. WINDS PREVAIL SW WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS AGAIN TOMORROW. ISO
SHRA/TS POSSIBLE AFTER ~21Z NEAR BNA AND MQY, PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE
NEAR SRB AND CSV. CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR TAF
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 85 61 86 / 0 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 59 83 62 87 / 0 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 56 77 58 81 / 0 20 30 0
COLUMBIA 58 84 61 85 / 0 10 10 0
COOKEVILLE 55 78 60 82 / 0 20 30 0
JAMESTOWN 56 76 58 82 / 10 20 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 57 83 60 84 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 56 84 61 85 / 0 10 10 0
WAVERLY 59 83 62 85 / 0 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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