643
FXUS64 KOHX 210321
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1021 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- WARM WEEKEND WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE (<30%) SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER
(STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A WARM WEEKEND IS AHEAD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH
RECORD VALUES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
60S WHILE WE'LL FEEL SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURES, THERE'S ACTUALLY CONTINUED LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN/STORMS THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY IS FAVORING
EASTERN TN INTO THE CAROLINAS. A BRIEF STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE PLATEAU INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POPS <30%. A STRONG WIND GUST OR
SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM BEFORE COLD ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHILE WE'LL EXPERIENCE COOLER WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
BEHIND MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, WE'LL TECHNICALLY REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COME-AND-GO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. WINDS PREVAIL SW WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS AGAIN TOMORROW. ISO
SHRA/TS POSSIBLE AFTER ~21Z NEAR BNA AND MQY, PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE
NEAR SRB AND CSV. CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR TAF
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 85 61 87 / 0 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 59 85 62 87 / 0 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 56 77 58 81 / 0 20 20 0
COLUMBIA 58 85 60 86 / 0 10 10 0
COOKEVILLE 55 79 60 81 / 10 20 10 0
JAMESTOWN 55 77 58 81 / 10 30 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 56 84 60 85 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 56 85 60 86 / 0 10 10 0
WAVERLY 59 84 63 85 / 0 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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