692
FXUS64 KOHX 210522
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- WARM WEEKEND WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE (<30%) SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER
(STILL ABOVE-NORMAL) TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A WARM WEEKEND IS AHEAD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH
RECORD VALUES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
60S WHILE WE'LL FEEL SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURES, THERE'S ACTUALLY CONTINUED LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN/STORMS THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY IS FAVORING
EASTERN TN INTO THE CAROLINAS. A BRIEF STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE PLATEAU INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POPS <30%. A STRONG WIND GUST OR
SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM BEFORE COLD ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHILE WE'LL EXPERIENCE COOLER WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
BEHIND MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, WE'LL TECHNICALLY REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COME-AND-GO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 6 TO 8 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TO
9 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AT CSV THIS AFTERNOON; PROB30 HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE TAF.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLATED AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
EAST OF ALL OTHER MIDDLE TN TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 85 61 87 53 / 10 10 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 85 62 87 47 / 10 10 10 30
CROSSVILLE 77 58 81 53 / 30 20 0 20
COLUMBIA 85 60 86 53 / 10 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 79 60 81 53 / 20 20 0 30
JAMESTOWN 77 58 81 49 / 30 30 0 30
LAWRENCEBURG 84 60 85 54 / 10 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 85 60 86 54 / 10 10 0 20
WAVERLY 84 63 85 48 / 10 0 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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