775
FXUS64 KOHX 212323
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL GET TO ENJOY A VERY WARM WEEKEND WITH
NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
- THERE ARE LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (<20%) SATURDAY EVENING, ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- THERE ARE ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WE SAW A WARM DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, KBNA HIT 89. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AS WE HEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A
SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY WORKING OVER THE REGION AND THAT HAS
BROUGHT SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE
(<20%) FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLATEAU
THROUGH 10 PM. HIGHS WILL BE HOT AGAIN TOMORROW UNDER SHORT WAVE
RIDGING AND WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SITS JUST TO OUR NORTH.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS GRADUALLY ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO EAST
TENNESSEE LATER TODAY, SO THERE ARE LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
ELSEWHERE, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD
VALUES, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT, A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSE, PERHAPS BRINGING A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
MID STATE, BUT ALSO DROPPING OUR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR ONE WHOLE DAY BEFORE WE START TO WARM RIGHT BACK UP.
NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN MOST
OF THE TIME, ALTHOUGH WE WILL ALSO UNDERGO PERSISTENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION, WHICH MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO PRODUCE
MAINLY LOW RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD. OVERALL,
7-DAY QPF TOTALS ARE ANEMIC, WITH MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
REMAINING RAIN-FREE, WHILE SOME AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-65 CAN
EXPECT TO PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG THE
WAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING BACK IN
TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 9 KNOTS THROUGH
14Z. WINDS PICK BACK UP AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 87 53 66 / 0 0 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 63 87 47 64 / 0 0 20 0
CROSSVILLE 59 79 53 63 / 20 0 20 0
COLUMBIA 61 85 52 69 / 0 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 59 80 53 63 / 20 0 30 0
JAMESTOWN 59 80 50 61 / 20 0 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 60 84 53 68 / 0 0 10 0
MURFREESBORO 61 85 53 67 / 10 0 10 0
WAVERLY 63 86 47 66 / 0 0 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......MUELLER
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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