686
FXUS64 KOHX 221128
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
- COOLER START TO THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND THAT WILL BRING
ANOTHER HOT DAY TO MIDDLE TN. WE WILL SEE HIGHS PUSH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF HITTING
90 IN SOME AREAS, MAINLY FOR NASHVILLE AND NORTHWEST AREAS. A COLD
FRONT SITTING TO NORTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON GUSTING
UP TO 25 MPH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT PUSHING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS
WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
THE TN/KY BOARDER AND OVER THE PLATEAU. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WE SEE THE BEST FORCING, THIS WILL
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW. THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO AMPLIFY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR SOME
WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WE WILL LACK MOISTURE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DRY AIR, THIS WILL KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES VERY LOW (<20%). UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEEK AND THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT OVERALL
CHANCES ARE STILL LOW. AFTER THE COOL DOWN MONDAY WE WILL SEE
HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY. THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL COOL THINGS BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TAFS ARE VFR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SW LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE NW. THERE ARE ALSO LLWS REMARKS IN A FEW OF THE
TAFS AS WE GET NEAR FROPA LATER TONIGHT. THERE ISN'T A GREAT DEAL
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT WE DO EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP POST-FRONTAL, ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS IN A FEW SPOTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. (PROB30 REMARKS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
WHERE POPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH.)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 89 52 66 43 / 0 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 89 46 64 42 / 0 30 0 0
CROSSVILLE 82 51 63 40 / 0 30 0 0
COLUMBIA 87 50 67 43 / 0 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 84 51 62 42 / 0 40 0 0
JAMESTOWN 84 47 60 38 / 0 50 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 87 52 67 44 / 0 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 87 52 66 44 / 0 20 0 0
WAVERLY 88 45 66 43 / 0 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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