906
FXUS64 KOHX 221649
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- EXPECT A COOLER START TO THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK ARE LOW WITH VERY LITTLE QPF DURING THE
UPCOMING 7 DAYS.
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ON MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SLIP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE INCREASED CLOUDINESS. AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM, AND RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT MAY EVEN ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ONTO WHAT
ALREADY PROMISES TO BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S
FROPA, TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER. BUT
EVEN THEN, WE'LL STILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ALSO TOMORROW,
MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY EXPERIENCE AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK
OWING TO VERY LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY, POST-FRONTAL WINDS. FUELS
WON'T TAKE ON MUCH MOISTURE, AS QPF VALUES OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM
ZERO TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
THE COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS WE WARM RIGHT BACK UP --
PERHAPS NOT TO RECORD LEVELS AGAIN, BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. AND THAT'S WHERE WE'LL STAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME,
IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AND LOW QPF. AN EARLY
LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND SUGGESTS A COOLER, RAIN-FREE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TAFS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY TO 2ZKT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS EVENING,
RESULTING IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 2KFT
WINDS AROUND 40KT PRECEDING THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS AND MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH POPS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MENTION ONLY AT CSV/SRB. ALL SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY
23/18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 51 65 43 / 0 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 88 45 62 40 / 0 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 81 51 60 38 / 0 20 10 0
COLUMBIA 87 50 65 43 / 0 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 82 51 60 41 / 0 30 0 0
JAMESTOWN 82 48 59 37 / 0 40 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 85 51 65 43 / 0 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 87 52 65 43 / 0 20 0 0
WAVERLY 87 45 64 43 / 0 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....13
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