286
FXUS64 KOHX 222315
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- EXPECT A COOLER START TO THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK ARE LOW WITH VERY LITTLE QPF DURING THE
UPCOMING 7 DAYS.
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ON MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SLIP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE INCREASED CLOUDINESS. AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM, AND RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT MAY EVEN ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ONTO WHAT
ALREADY PROMISES TO BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S
FROPA, TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER. BUT
EVEN THEN, WE'LL STILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ALSO TOMORROW,
MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY EXPERIENCE AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK
OWING TO VERY LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY, POST-FRONTAL WINDS. FUELS
WON'T TAKE ON MUCH MOISTURE, AS QPF VALUES OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM
ZERO TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
THE COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS WE WARM RIGHT BACK UP --
PERHAPS NOT TO RECORD LEVELS AGAIN, BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. AND THAT'S WHERE WE'LL STAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME,
IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AND LOW QPF. AN EARLY
LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND SUGGESTS A COOLER, RAIN-FREE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z WITH A LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE PLATEAU. VFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 16Z. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 21 KNOTS, WE WILL ALSO
SEE LLWS DEVELOP FROM 03 TO 09Z. WINDS SHIFT NORTH AFTER 09Z AND
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 51 65 43 68 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 45 62 40 67 / 20 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 51 60 38 64 / 20 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 50 65 43 69 / 10 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 51 60 41 65 / 30 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 48 59 37 64 / 40 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 51 65 43 69 / 10 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 52 65 43 69 / 20 0 0 10
WAVERLY 45 64 43 68 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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