616
FXUS64 KOHX 230352
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- EXPECT A COOLER START TO THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEK IS FRIDAY, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ON MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WITH A FANTASTIC WEEKEND NOW JUST ABOUT IN THE BOOKS AND THE TYING
OF A 119-YEAR OLD RECORD TODAY AT BNA (88), WE NOW TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT HAS
REACHED THE PAH AREA AS OF 10 PM CARRYING WITH IT A SHARP
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER, OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE MIDDLE TN TONIGHT ARE MEAGER, AT
BEST. OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF SHOWER (LOW
CHANCE) PRIOR TO SUNRISE, BUT THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF TONIGHT'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GOING TO BE THE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
TOMORROW. WHILE TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FULL
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WE SAW THIS AFTERNOON, MUCH LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-
STATE. EVEN A QUICK GLANCE AT FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN AND LOWER DEW POINTS
EVEN FURTHER. I DON'T THINK WE WILL QUALIFY FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, BUT WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ADDED IN, WE WON'T BE
FAR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FAIRLY WELL, WE AREN'T IN THE MARKET FOR MUCH
RAIN THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON CULMINATING IN YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF RECORD BREAKING BY
THURSDAY. AS IT STANDS, THE RECORD HIGH AT BNA FOR MARCH 26 IS 86
SET IN 2007. NBM PROBS ARE AROUND 40-50% OF SEEING THAT RECORD FALL.
OF NOTE, PROBS OF REACHING 90 ARE ONLY ABOUT 10%, SO WE'LL BE
LOOKING AT UPPER 80S THAT DAY.
WHAT RAIN WE MIGHT SEE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS
IT SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. OF COURSE,
PLENTY CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT THIS IS THE CURRENT
THINKING. COULD SOME ELEVATED THUNDER BE INCLUDED AT SOME POINT?
SURE, BUT SURFACE BASED ELEMENTS ARE VERY LOW TO ZERO. THE BEST
PART? THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SET US UP FOR A DRY AND VERY
COMFORTABLE WEEKEND AHEAD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z WITH A LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE PLATEAU. VFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 16Z. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 21 KNOTS, WE WILL ALSO
SEE LLWS DEVELOP FROM 03 TO 09Z. WINDS SHIFT NORTH AFTER 09Z AND
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 51 64 39 67 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 46 61 38 64 / 20 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 51 59 37 62 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 50 64 41 67 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 51 59 39 63 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 47 58 35 63 / 30 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 51 64 41 66 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 52 64 41 67 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 46 62 41 64 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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