991
FXUS64 KOHX 231627
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
- MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES, ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT 7 DAYS.
- THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY. NO SEVERE
STORMS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
AFTER AN UNUSUALLY WARM WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT HAD USHERED IN MUCH
COOLER AIR WITH GUSTY NORTH BREEZES THIS MONDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DRY AIR AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WAS CREATING HEIGHTENED
CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE MID STATE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
TYPICAL WX FOR MARCH, IT IS AROUND 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN WE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OUR
MAIN WX INFLUENCER WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC, SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM NORTH TO
EAST SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THE BIG HOT RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST. WE WILL SEE
A WARMING TREND WITH RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE THURSDAY. AS IT
STANDS, THE RECORD HIGH AT BNA FOR MARCH 26 IS 86 SET IN 2007. NBM
PROBS ARE AROUND 40-50% OF SEEING THAT RECORD FALL. OF NOTE,
PROBS OF REACHING 90 ARE ONLY ABOUT 10%.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EXPANDING RIDGE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY WITH THESE DISTURBANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, POPS ARE JUST TOO LOW IN THE DRY AIR MASS TO INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SOME
EPISODES OF PASSING CLOUDS.
WHAT LITTLE RAIN WE MIGHT SEE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO
OUTLOOK FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. THE BAD NEWS, NOT AS MUCH
RAIN AS WE WOULD LIKE WITH CONDITIONS GETTING VERY DRY FOR
SPRING-TIME. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SET IS UP FOR A DRY
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL,
THEN SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE WARM SIDE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ALL TERMINALS
WILL BE IMPACTED BY POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BEFORE 18Z, BUT WINDS WILL STAY
GUSTY TO 22KT THROUGH THE DAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THEN EAST WHILE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 41 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 58 37 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 64 41 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 58 40 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 57 36 63 42 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 63 41 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 63 41 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 61 41 67 49 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....13
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