408
FXUS64 KOHX 110526
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH A COMBINATION OF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 30 - 35%
RANGE.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND,
CONTINUED WARM NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START NEXT WEEK, BUT ANY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CLOUDS ARE CREEPING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON
SATELLITE THIS EVENING. AS FOR THE WEEKEND, AN ALREADY ERECTED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE OUR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
INTO THE MID 80S BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. AS A SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY, SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER HAVE A VERY LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS, BUT NO
ONE ELSE CAN EXPECT ANY RAIN THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON
SUNDAY THOUGH, AS WE ARE EXPECTING SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT DAY BECAUSE OF THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. PLEASE AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING ON SUNDAY IF
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE: FROM ISOLATED AT THE START OF THE WEEK TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AS WE SLIDE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE WORK WEEK. AREAS AROUND
CLARKSVILLE HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN ON MONDAY,
SITTING AT 30 - 40% CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH RIGHT NOW. RAIN
CHANCES AND FORECASTED QPF HAS GONE UP IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM. NOT QUITE DROUGHT-BUSTING MATERIAL, BUT SOME DECENT
PROBABILITIES ARE PRESENTING THEMSELVES IN THE GUIDANCE. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AS WE GET INTO SOME OF THE MORE
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO WIDESPREAD MID-80S BY MID-
WEEK, WITH UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE, HOWEVER A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
SITTING NEAR THE TN-KY STATE LINE AND WILL BRING MID-CLOUD DECK
TO CKV AND POTENTIALLY BNA BY DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY. A SHOWER OR
STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR CKV SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELIHOOD IS
LOW. I HAVE TRIED TO PINPOINT WIND DIRECTIONS BEST I CAN, BUT THEY
TRULY LOOK TO BE LIGHT (5 KTS OR LESS) AND VRB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 58 86 65 / 20 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 82 58 86 66 / 20 10 0 20
CROSSVILLE 77 54 81 60 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 84 56 85 63 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 78 57 82 63 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 77 55 82 61 / 20 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 82 56 84 63 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 83 56 86 65 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 82 60 86 67 / 20 10 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....UNGER
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