462
FXUS64 KOHX 111650
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH A COMBINATION OF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 25-35%
RANGE.
- VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
CONTINUED UNSEASONAL WARMTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY, BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FORECAST ON THURSDAY (30-60%).
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE AXIS IS CURRENTLY
STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE WHICH HAS LED TO
CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND A FEW RADAR RETURNS.
NOT SURE ANY RAIN DROPS ACTUALLY MADE IT TO THE GROUND, HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE, WE CURRENTLY SIT IN A FAIRLY QUIET ENVIRONMENT WITH A
LARGE FOOTPRINT OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOMORROW WHICH WILL ACT
TO STRENGTHEN DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THUS, RH VALUES
WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES, 10-15 MPH
WINDS (GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH), AND DRY FUELS DOES CAUSE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
RIDGING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR A GLANCING BLOW OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE ARKLATEX. THIS FEATURE COULD CARRY ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOISTURE VALUES BE SUPPORTIVE. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER PWS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA, AT LEAST
BRIEFLY, ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT. POPS ARE LOW (10-30%)
CURRENTLY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. RIDGING REGAINS PROMINENCE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND FORECAST HIGHS REFLECT THIS NICELY. IN FACT, WE COULD APPROACH
RECORD HIGHS THOSE DAYS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN THE ONE ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY ALONG & NEAR
THE FRONT (PWS 1.3 TO 1.6"), SO POPS ARE MEDIUM (30-60%) IN
EXPECTATION OF BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. LATEST QPF IS ONLY
~.25" OR LESS, SO NO DROUGHT BUSTER HERE. CONTINUED WARMTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL A CHANGE CAN OCCUR IN THIS STAGNANT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE, HOWEVER A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
SITTING NEAR THE TN-KY STATE LINE THAT HAS BROUGHT A MID-CLOUD
DECK TO OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
FOR CKV SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELIHOOD IS LOW. I HAVE TRIED TO
PINPOINT WIND DIRECTIONS BEST I CAN, BUT THEY TRULY LOOK TO BE
LIGHT (5 KTS OR LESS) AND VRB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 58 86 64 / 10 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 82 58 86 66 / 20 10 0 20
CROSSVILLE 77 55 81 60 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 84 56 85 64 / 10 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 79 57 83 63 / 10 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 78 55 83 61 / 10 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 82 56 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 84 56 87 64 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 83 59 86 67 / 10 10 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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