736
FXUS64 KOHX 120001
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
701 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 656 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH A COMBINATION OF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 25-35%
RANGE.
- VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
CONTINUED UNSEASONAL WARMTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY, BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FORECAST ON THURSDAY (30-60%).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS SEEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THOSE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS WITH THE MOST NOTABLE ONE OVER FENTRESS AND PICKETT
COUNTIES RIGHT NOW. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. THE
MAIN STORY ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES
GETTING BELOW 30% IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 10-15 MPH SSW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE AXIS IS CURRENTLY
STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE WHICH HAS LED TO
CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND A FEW RADAR RETURNS.
NOT SURE ANY RAIN DROPS ACTUALLY MADE IT TO THE GROUND, HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE, WE CURRENTLY SIT IN A FAIRLY QUIET ENVIRONMENT WITH A
LARGE FOOTPRINT OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOMORROW WHICH WILL ACT
TO STRENGTHEN DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THUS, RH VALUES
WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES, 10-15 MPH
WINDS (GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH), AND DRY FUELS DOES CAUSE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
RIDGING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR A GLANCING BLOW OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE ARKLATEX. THIS FEATURE COULD CARRY ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOISTURE VALUES BE SUPPORTIVE. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER PWS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA, AT LEAST
BRIEFLY, ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT. POPS ARE LOW (10-30%)
CURRENTLY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. RIDGING REGAINS PROMINENCE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND FORECAST HIGHS REFLECT THIS NICELY. IN FACT, WE COULD APPROACH
RECORD HIGHS THOSE DAYS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN THE ONE ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY ALONG & NEAR
THE FRONT (PWS 1.3 TO 1.6"), SO POPS ARE MEDIUM (30-60%) IN
EXPECTATION OF BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. LATEST QPF IS ONLY
~.25" OR LESS, SO NO DROUGHT BUSTER HERE. CONTINUED WARMTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL A CHANGE CAN OCCUR IN THIS STAGNANT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING INTO TOMORROW.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY 04Z. THEY
WILL PICK UP AFTER 16Z AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 22
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 86 65 83 / 0 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 58 85 66 83 / 0 0 20 30
CROSSVILLE 54 81 60 78 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 56 85 63 82 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 57 82 63 78 / 0 0 10 10
JAMESTOWN 55 82 61 78 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 56 84 63 81 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 56 86 64 83 / 0 0 10 10
WAVERLY 59 85 66 83 / 0 0 10 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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