500
FXUS64 KOHX 120344
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH A COMBINATION OF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 25-35%
RANGE.
- CONTINUED UNSEASONAL WARMTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FORECAST ON
THURSDAY (30-50%).
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE RADAR IS CLEAR NOW AFTER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY FOG FOR LOCATIONS THAT PICKED
UP SOME RAIN THIS EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A 995
MB SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR OUR AREA, WE WILL BE PRETTY DRY BELOW
700 MB ALLOWING FOR RH VALUES MIX TO BELOW 30% IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE 10-15 MPH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED FIRE CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. I DON'T
EXPECT WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH VALUES TO DROP ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLIP OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 06Z. ANY SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY
18Z MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST MONDAY, OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOME MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY PASS
THROUGH THE AREA, SO I DON'T EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES,
AND I EXPECT QPF TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. UPPER RIDGING WILL
REGAIN STRENGTH ON FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING INTO TOMORROW.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY 04Z. THEY
WILL PICK UP AFTER 16Z AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 22
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 86 64 82 / 0 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 58 86 66 82 / 0 0 40 30
CROSSVILLE 54 81 60 78 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 56 85 63 82 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 57 82 62 77 / 0 0 10 10
JAMESTOWN 55 82 61 79 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 56 84 62 80 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 56 86 64 82 / 0 0 10 10
WAVERLY 59 85 66 82 / 0 0 30 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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