865
FXUS64 KOHX 121650
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 25-35%.
- CONTINUED UNSEASONAL WARMTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (<50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
FORECAST ON THURSDAY (30-60%).
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IS VERY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MESOANALYSIS TODAY WHICH IS SITTING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST.
THIS COINCIDES WITH AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. DRY AIR BEING EVIDENT ON OUR OR MORNING RAOB IS TEAMING UP
WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. RHS ARE FORECAST TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 25-30% RANGE WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. FUELS ARE ALSO DRY DUE TO EXPANDING DROUGHT.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR BNA IS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD, BUT WITH DRY AIR AND A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE, IT'S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE AT LEAST TIE THE RECORD OF 88 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1906.
A LITTLE HOPE FOR MOISTURE/RAIN WILL ENTER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS WE GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND WEAKENING FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, THROUGH RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN
VERY LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. CLOUDS/MOISTURE
IN THE AREA TOMORROW WILL BRING A LITTLE AFTERNOON HEAT RELIEF AT
LEAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AFTER A LITTLE RELIEF FROM HEAT AND DRYNESS ON MONDAY, WE'LL BE
BACK INTO VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WE'LL CERTAINLY BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS AT BNA THOSE DAYS
WHICH ARE 89 AND 87 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY.
A DECENT SIGNAL FOR RAIN & STORMS STILL PERSISTS ON MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
DESPITE THE RESISTING SYNOPTIC RIDGE. POPS ARE GENERALLY 30-60%
AND RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" OR LESS ARE IN THE FORECAST. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEST OF I-65. THIS ISN'T MEANINGFUL
TO THE OVERALL DROUGHT, BUT AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME RELIEF
FROM HEAT AND DRYNESS.
SYNOPTIC RIDGING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROMINENT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONAL WARMTH AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, A
SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL
REMAINS DEPICTED ON LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES THIS
WEEKEND, MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FINGERS
CROSSED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
TO START AROUND 16Z THIS MORNING AND SHOULD RELAX AROUND 00Z/MON.
HAVE INCLUDED LLWS OVERNIGHT (05Z-11Z/MON) FOR BNA/MQY/CKV.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 65 82 65 / 0 20 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 85 66 82 67 / 0 40 40 10
CROSSVILLE 81 60 78 59 / 0 10 20 10
COLUMBIA 86 63 83 64 / 0 10 30 0
COOKEVILLE 82 62 78 62 / 0 10 20 10
JAMESTOWN 82 61 78 60 / 0 10 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 84 62 81 63 / 0 10 20 0
MURFREESBORO 86 64 82 64 / 0 10 30 10
WAVERLY 85 66 83 67 / 0 30 40 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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