461
FXUS64 KOHX 130351
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1051 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (<50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY, BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES FORECAST ON THURSDAY (30-60%).
- CONTINUED UNSEASONAL WARMTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS PRETTY DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE 00Z OHX
SOUNDING SHOWING VERY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AHEAD A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WITH
COVERAGE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON. REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES, THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE FAVORED WITH
PROBABILITIES DECREASING THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. QPF
ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW
0.1". WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL MOISTEN UP, THE
PLATEAU WILL REMAIN MUCH DRIER. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW
30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 10-15 MPH SSW WINDS. THE
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. RH VALUES LOOK LIKE THEY'LL DROP BELOW 30% IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH 10-15 MPH WINDS LEADING TO ENHANCED FIRE
CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-60%).
ONCE AGAIN, RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THURSDAY'S WAVE WE WILL NOT
COOL OFF. IN FACT, FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MAYBE
EVEN 90 DEGREES. CONDITIONS STAY DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRING LOW
TO MEDIUM POPS. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
INSTEAD OF THE 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BRING A LOW (<30%) CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BETWEEN 10
AND 16Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME 6 TO 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, WE WILL SEE LLWS 22040KT DEVELOP BETWEEN 03 AND 10Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 83 64 87 / 20 40 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 67 83 66 87 / 50 60 10 0
CROSSVILLE 60 78 59 82 / 10 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 63 83 63 87 / 20 30 10 0
COOKEVILLE 62 78 61 82 / 10 30 10 0
JAMESTOWN 61 78 60 83 / 10 30 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 62 80 62 85 / 10 20 10 0
MURFREESBORO 64 82 63 87 / 10 30 10 0
WAVERLY 65 82 66 87 / 40 50 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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