370
FXUS64 KOHX 061127
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS ARE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND
AHEAD OF IT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, AND AS IT DOES, THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR WHICH
STILL SUPPORTS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT - PRIMARILY WEST OF I-65. MAIN THREAT IS STRONG WINDS,
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THERE DOES
REMAIN A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF TN
WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND BY THE END OF IT, RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE STILL FORECAST. OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 2
INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING IS ABOUT 40-60%. HOPEFULLY THIS RAIN IS
GOOD NEWS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WE WILL
WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S AND NEAR 80 FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN, THAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS
A TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
STILL A WAYS OUT TO GET INTO THE DETAILS, BUT WE'LL DEFINITELY
TAKE THE RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS TODAY,
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS LIKELY. SOME LIFR CIGS MAY IMPACT
TERMINALS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY KCSV LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT
LOWER CIGS WILL ALLOW FOR BR TO KEEP VIS AROUND AND BELOW 6SM.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 50 69 46 / 80 70 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 65 47 68 43 / 60 40 0 0
CROSSVILLE 68 49 64 41 / 100 90 10 0
COLUMBIA 69 50 69 43 / 90 80 0 0
COOKEVILLE 66 50 65 43 / 90 90 0 0
JAMESTOWN 67 47 64 40 / 100 80 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 69 49 68 43 / 100 80 0 0
MURFREESBORO 69 51 69 44 / 90 80 0 0
WAVERLY 68 50 69 44 / 90 80 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....BARNWELL
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