280
FXUS64 KOHX 061651
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
VERY LOW, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY, BECOMING WARMER
THIS WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A COLD FRONT IS NOW POSITIONED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IS
CURRENTLY NEAR LAWRENCEBURG TO NEAR CROSSVILLE. AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT ARE COOLER AND CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF MIST. THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER. FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, SO BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.
THANKFULLY MORNING CONVECTION DEPLOYED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AREA WHICH STALLED IN NORTHERN MS AND AL. THIS WILL HELP
SUPPRESS HIGHEST INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST STORMS
COULD CONTAIN A STRONG WIND GUST OR SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWS RUNNING 1.4 TO 1.6" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. CONTINUED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT RAINFALL RATES AND COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE/COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THURSDAY
WILL BE COOLER AND STABLE OVERALL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER, STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION AND A DRIER AIR
MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE
WEEKEND SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A WARM-UP AS A RESULT AND
MOISTURE INCREASES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY
WHEN A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL BEFORE LOW RAIN/STORM
CHANCES MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE MID WEEK. THERE'S NO OBVIOUS
SIGNAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS TODAY,
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS LIKELY. SOME LIFR CIGS MAY IMPACT
TERMINALS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY KCSV LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT
LOWER CIGS WILL ALLOW FOR BR TO KEEP VIS AROUND AND BELOW 6SM.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 50 68 45 / 80 50 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 65 47 67 43 / 50 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 68 48 64 40 / 90 80 0 0
COLUMBIA 69 50 69 43 / 90 50 0 0
COOKEVILLE 66 49 64 42 / 100 70 0 0
JAMESTOWN 67 46 64 39 / 100 70 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 69 50 68 43 / 100 70 0 0
MURFREESBORO 69 50 68 43 / 90 60 0 0
WAVERLY 65 48 68 44 / 60 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....BARNWELL
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