432
FXUS64 KOHX 071620
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1120 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- DRY AND COOL TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS. A FEW PATCHES OF
FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND.
- WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID STATE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
SOME SHELTERED SPOTS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FROST, MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. FROST DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. SOME AREAS MAY HAVE
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. WITHIN THE
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW, A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THESE WAVES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
SO WE WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANY
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINDROPS WILL NOT GET MUCH. MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80.
BETTER, AREA-WIDE RAIN CHANCES WILL COME IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL FORM. LOCATIONS THAT GET UNDER A
STORM WILL HAVE A BRIEF SOAKING RAINFALL, BUT GENERALLY IT WILL
BE A LOW-END EVENT WITH LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY, SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR. GOING
THROUGH THE WEEK, THEN RIDGE FROM OUT WEST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
EASTWARD BRINGING A SLOW WARMING TREND. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE
WEEK, BUT NO MAJOR SOAKING RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS BY 15Z, AS CLOUDS EXIT
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WINDS WILL BE RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY 01Z, AND STAYING THAT WAY ALL NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE RISK OF FG
TO TAF SITES IN THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN ITS OCCURRENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. NO
OTHER CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 45 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 67 42 75 54 / 0 0 0 30
CROSSVILLE 63 39 69 48 / 10 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 68 42 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 64 41 70 50 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 64 38 71 49 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 67 42 72 51 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 68 42 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 68 43 75 54 / 0 0 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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