276
FXUS64 KOHX 101116
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW THUNDER CHANCES. NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO COOL. MANY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ARE
STILL RELATIVELY WARM, BUT THOSE SOUTH OF I-40 ARE ALREADY NEARING
LOCAL DEW POINTS. WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, THIS COULD
SPELL SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERAL NEAR-TERM MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME OF THE DENSE STUFF ALONG THE TN-AL STATE LINE,
STRETCHING UP TOWARDS CROSSVILLE. WILL MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT AS IT MAY NOT BE THAT WIDESPREAD. IF YOU'RE
HEADED OUT FIRST THING TOMORROW MORNING, JUST KNOW YOU MAY ENCOUNTER
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THESE AREAS.
AS WE MOVE INTO TOMORROW, ANY FOG WILL CLEAR OUT AND UNDER PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MID-STATE
TOMORROW EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT SHOWERS AND WHAT MAY BE A FEW
STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
POST-FRONTAL. THAT MEANS ANY STORMS THAT WE DO SEE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ELEVATED AND WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY SEVERE CRITERIA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY. QPFS ARE MEAGER. ONE QUARTER INCH OR
LESS IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THESE MEAGER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE UNFORTUNATE. I SAY THIS BECAUSE
WHILE WE HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES A COUPLE OF TIMES OVER THE NEXT WEEK
TO 10 DAYS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIMITED. THE FIRST CHANCE IS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENTLY,
BOTH LOOK PATHETIC AND THE BUMP WE GOT FROM LAST WEEK'S RAIN MAY
VERY WELL BE SHORT-LIVED AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY ONLY PROVE TO
BECOME WORSE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. I SUPPOSE IF
THERE'S ANY GOOD NEWS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THIS COULD CHANGE IN OUR EXTENDED GUIDANCE,
BUT I'LL NEED TO SEE THAT FOR A FEW MORE RUNS TO START TALKING
ABOUT IT AT ANY GREAT LENGTH. IN THE END, WE CAN HANG OUR HATS ON
THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF NO SEVERE WEATHER ANY TIME SOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FG CONTINUES TO BE A
PROBLEM AT CSV AND SRB THIS MORNING, WITH FREQUENT REDUCTIONS TO
1/2SM OR LOWER. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AGAIN THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 00Z, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF TS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 57 74 50 / 0 70 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 82 55 75 48 / 10 40 10 0
CROSSVILLE 79 53 69 44 / 0 50 50 0
COLUMBIA 84 56 74 48 / 0 60 20 0
COOKEVILLE 80 54 70 46 / 10 60 40 0
JAMESTOWN 80 51 69 43 / 10 70 40 0
LAWRENCEBURG 83 57 73 48 / 0 40 30 0
MURFREESBORO 85 56 74 47 / 0 60 30 0
WAVERLY 84 56 75 49 / 10 50 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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