017
FXUS64 KOHX 101735
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. VERY
LOW THUNDER CHANCES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
AFTER A FOGGY START FOR SOME AREAS NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER AND
ALONG THE PLATEAU, A VERY NICE MOTHER'S DAY HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT, MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT FOR
THE MOST PART, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MEAGER RAINFALL LESS
THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
A FEW DRIPS WILL LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT DRY AIR WILL
TAKE OVER AGAIN QUICKLY. EVEN AS SUNSHINE RE-EMERGES, HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, IN THE 70S. THAT
IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF LOW-END
CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT NOTHING MUCH. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WHICH ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN. THE BRIGHT SIDE IS AN
EXTREMELY LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE AROUND A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE PLEASANT/NORMAL 70S AND LOWER 80S. BUT,
THE PLEASANTRIES MAY SLIP AWAY AS EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THE BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVING OUT AS STRONG RIDGING MOVES
OUR WAY. THIS MAY SET US UP FOR OUR FIRST 90+ DEGREE DAYS OF 2026
BY THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH, WE COULD SEE THE START OF A
DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM PATTERN WITH 10-30 PERCENT COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MIDDLE TN, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. SHOWERS
WILL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NNE
AROUND 10 KTS. GIVEN HOW LIGHT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE, NO CHANGE TO
FLIGHT CATEGORY APPEARS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE AREA AFTER 14Z, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
INCREASING NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SHORT WINDOW OF MVFR
CIGS APPEARS LIKELY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AT CSV AND SRB WITH
CIGS AROUND 2KFT. THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 57 75 50 80 / 60 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 55 75 48 80 / 40 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 53 69 45 74 / 40 50 0 0
COLUMBIA 56 75 48 80 / 50 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 55 70 46 75 / 60 40 0 0
JAMESTOWN 52 70 44 75 / 60 40 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 57 73 47 78 / 40 30 0 0
MURFREESBORO 56 74 47 80 / 50 30 0 0
WAVERLY 56 75 49 79 / 50 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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