103
FXUS64 KOHX 102326
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
626 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. VERY
LOW THUNDER CHANCES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
AFTER A FOGGY START FOR SOME AREAS NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER AND
ALONG THE PLATEAU, A VERY NICE MOTHER'S DAY HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT, MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT FOR
THE MOST PART, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MEAGER RAINFALL LESS
THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
A FEW DRIPS WILL LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT DRY AIR WILL
TAKE OVER AGAIN QUICKLY. EVEN AS SUNSHINE RE-EMERGES, HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, IN THE 70S. THAT
IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF LOW-END
CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT NOTHING MUCH. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WHICH ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN. THE BRIGHT SIDE IS AN
EXTREMELY LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE AROUND A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE PLEASANT/NORMAL 70S AND LOWER 80S. BUT,
THE PLEASANTRIES MAY SLIP AWAY AS EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THE BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVING OUT AS STRONG RIDGING MOVES
OUR WAY. THIS MAY SET US UP FOR OUR FIRST 90+ DEGREE DAYS OF 2026
BY THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH, WE COULD SEE THE START OF A
DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM PATTERN WITH 10-30 PERCENT COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A COLD FRONT RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH BNA/MQY TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CSV WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE BNA/MQY/CKV ARE IMPACTED EARLIER THAN 05Z AS INDICATED IN
THE TAF BUT THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE WINDOW IS AFTER 05Z THROUGH
12Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END IN THE MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CSV/SRB DURING THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS AT
BNA WILL DECREASE BELOW 5 KTS AFTER 12/02Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 57 75 50 80 / 60 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 55 75 48 80 / 40 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 53 69 45 74 / 40 50 0 0
COLUMBIA 56 75 48 80 / 50 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 55 70 46 75 / 60 40 0 0
JAMESTOWN 52 70 44 75 / 70 40 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 57 73 47 78 / 40 30 0 0
MURFREESBORO 56 74 47 80 / 50 30 0 0
WAVERLY 56 75 49 79 / 50 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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