614
FXUS64 KOHX 111115
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- RAIN TAPERING OFF INTO THIS MORNING, AND SKIES CLEARING OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE AND MID-STATE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING
SHOWS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR CURRENT WEATHER MAKER IS ALMOST
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA. THEN YOU FLIP OVER TO RADAR AND REALIZE
THE RAIN HAS ONLY MADE IT TO A FEW SPOTS IN WEST MIDDLE TN SO FAR.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITHOUT ANY THUNDER. I LIKE THE WORD OUR
MIDNIGHT SHIFT USED TO DESCRIBE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE'RE GOING TO
GET: PALTRY. THAT PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EVERYONE WILL SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINS WILL EVENTUALLY GET OUT OF
HERE BY THE MIDDLE OF TOMORROW MORNING AND LEAVE US WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
ONCE THE RAIN GETS OUT OF HERE TOMORROW MORNING, THERE'S A VERY GOOD
CHANCE WE WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER LONG STRETCH OF DAYS WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM I TALKED ABOUT
LAST NIGHT HAS GOTTEN EVEN MORE PATHETIC THAN IT LOOKED 24 HOURS
AGO. QPFS ARE RUNNING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH (SOME MAY NOT EVEN
SEE ANY!) AND WITH A MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE, INSTABILITY LIKELY
WON'T HAVE TIME TO BUILD UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE US ANY ISSUES. THE REST
OF THE WORKWEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY ADDITIONAL DRY, DROUGHT-
STRENGTHENING CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.
MODEL AGREEMENT ON OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN MAKER IS NOT VERY GOOD.
EURO IS SUGGESTING SOMETHING ON SATURDAY, THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. GFS
HAS A DRY WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY,
BOTH ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP
NEAR 90 DEGREES NEXT WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PRECEDE ANY
RAIN AND BRING US A LITTLE TASTE OF SUMMER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SHRA WILL MOVE TO EASTERN TAF SITES ONLY BY 13Z. AROUND 15Z,
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20
KNOTS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THIS TAF PERIOD,
CLEARING OUT BY 02Z ON TUESDAY. AROUND THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF NOT TOTALLY CALM. NO OTHER CONCERNS THIS
TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 50 81 57 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 76 49 80 58 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 69 46 74 53 / 40 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 75 48 80 55 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 71 47 75 55 / 30 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 70 45 76 53 / 50 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 74 48 79 55 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 75 48 80 55 / 20 0 0 10
WAVERLY 76 50 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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