380
FXUS64 KOHX 111623
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST OF THE WEEK, WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND.
- DROUGHT CONTINUES WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
LIGHT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAD ENDED BY MID MORNING. A HANDFUL OF
LUCKY LOCATIONS COLLECTED ABOUT ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN, BUT BY FAR
MOST LOCATIONS HAD LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. TOTALS WERE PRETTY
MUCH NADA FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
DRY AIR WAS MOVING IN WITH SUNSHINE, NORTH BREEZES, AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SAYING
MUCH ABOUT FOG, BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG IN
VALLEYS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU, SO I ADDED LATE NIGHT FOG FOR
FAVORED AREAS.
DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE A WINNER WITH SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
LATEST NBM SHOWS NO POPS, BUT SOME SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW
SOME PATCHY LOW RAIN CHANCES. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER GENTLE
PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN STORY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE START OF AN
EARLY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
BRINGING US PLEASANT WEATHER WILL LIFT OUT AS A FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGE PATTERN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR THE
FIRST 90+ DEGREE DAYS OF 2026. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE DECENT,
AT LEAST INITIALLY. WE WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT STILL NOTHING MEANINGFUL FOR DROUGHT RELIEF.
THANKFULLY WE CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF OUR
TRADITIONAL PEAK SEVERE WEATHER SEASON WITH NO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SHRA WILL MOVE TO EASTERN TAF SITES ONLY BY 13Z. AROUND 15Z,
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20
KNOTS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THIS TAF PERIOD,
CLEARING OUT BY 02Z ON TUESDAY. AROUND THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF NOT TOTALLY CALM. NO OTHER CONCERNS THIS
TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 76 49 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 69 46 75 53 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 75 48 80 55 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 71 47 76 55 / 30 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 70 46 76 53 / 50 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 74 48 79 56 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 75 48 81 56 / 20 0 0 0
WAVERLY 76 50 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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