952
FXUS64 KOHX 121116
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM WEDNESDAY EAST OF I-65. NO
SEVERE EXPECTED.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST OF THE WEEK, WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND.
- DROUGHT CONTINUES WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SKIES HAVE COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TN AT FORECAST TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY COOLING TOWARDS DEW POINTS IN SEVERAL PLACES
AND COUPLED WITH WET GROUNDS FROM LAST NIGHT'S RAINFALL, SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD, KEEP THIS IN
MIND FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
TONIGHT'S FORECAST PACKAGE REVOLVES AROUND TWO PITIFUL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE FIRST COMES LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-65. QPFS
REMAIN LESS THAN 0.25" AND MOST WON'T SEE ANY AT ALL. NOT GREAT FOR
A DROUGHT. HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE SECOND SHOT WILL COME THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT JUST ISN'T MUCH. THE
LATEST GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER EXTENDED
GUIDANCE AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH BOTH TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER
OR STORM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YEAH. NOT GREAT. THEN, THE ICING ON THE CAKE:
BETTER AGREEMENT IS ALSO BEING SHOWN ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
REACHING THE LOW 90S. WE HAVE NOT HIT 90 AT BNA YET THIS YEAR, BUT
IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT'S ON ITS WAY AS WEAK RIDGING BEHIND FRIDAY
NIGHT'S TINY PRECIP CHANCES EXERTS ITSELF ON THE REGION. THE LAST
TIME WE SAW 90? SEPT 21ST, 2025. SUMMER'S ACOMIN'.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
NO CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ALL SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY, THEY WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN TO THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OUT
OF THE S/SW. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS INTO NEXT TAF PERIOD,
AROUND 20 KNOT GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 58 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 80 56 80 49 / 0 0 10 0
CROSSVILLE 75 54 75 45 / 0 0 20 0
COLUMBIA 81 57 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 76 55 77 47 / 0 0 20 0
JAMESTOWN 76 53 76 44 / 0 0 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 79 58 81 50 / 0 0 10 0
MURFREESBORO 81 57 82 50 / 0 0 10 0
WAVERLY 80 56 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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