144
FXUS64 KOHX 121739
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM WEDNESDAY EAST OF I-65. NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY, WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND.
- DROUGHT CONTINUES WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
ALTHOUGH WE ARE IN A DROUGHT, IT IS REALLY HARD TO COMPLAIN ON A
BEAUTIFUL DAY LIKE THIS WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SEASONABLE 50S.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED. BUT, LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST SOME DAYS. THE FIRST OF THOSE LOW CHANCE
EPISODES WILL COME WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-65, BUT NO BREATH HOLDING PLEASE. QPFS REMAIN LESS THAN 0.25"
AND MOST AREAS WON'T SEE ANY AT ALL. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A GENTLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY, BUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS AND
THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THURSDAY
WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE WITH A NORTH BREEZE. BE SURE TO GET OUT AND
ENJOY THE FRESH SPRING FEEL, BECAUSE EARLY SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS
ARE COMING OUR WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE BIGGEST STORY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS A WEEKEND WARMUP
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR OUR FIRST 90+ DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR. 500
MB HEIGHTS WILL BE 5-10 DECAMETERS ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH 10-20 DECAMETER
ANOMALIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WITH AN "EARLY SUMMER"
FEEL. I SAY EARLY SUMMER BECAUSE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY
TOLERABLE. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AGAIN, NO BREATH HOLDING.
MODELS SHOW SOME HOPE OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT IT'S HARD TO GET RAIN IN A DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 18
KNOTS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 82 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 56 80 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 53 75 45 67 / 0 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 58 82 50 76 / 0 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 56 77 47 69 / 0 20 0 0
JAMESTOWN 54 76 44 67 / 0 20 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 58 81 50 74 / 0 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 58 82 50 74 / 0 10 0 0
WAVERLY 56 81 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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