868
FXUS64 KOHX 270454
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- NEW RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS
THROUGH SUNDAY. BRIEF, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS
AND LOWS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN SLOW TO EVOLVE. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, SO THIS
HAS KEPT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THANKFULLY PWS
HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING (1.5-1.6") AND BEST FORCING
HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTH. TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW, THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. NO ORGANIZED
FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A MOISTURE GRADIENT
APPEARS TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH
OF I-40, BUT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS
EXPECTED NONETHELESS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR LOOMING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS EVIDENT ON
GUIDANCE AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER
ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. PWS IN THIS
MOISTURE AXIS ARE PROGGED TO RUN 1.6-1.8" WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR MASS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH BY SUNDAY WHICH LEADS TO DECREASING POPS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEND TIME TO DRY OUT
AFTER REPEATED WAVES OF DROUGHT-IMPROVING RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SHRA ACTIVITY NEAR SRB AND CSV WHICH SHOULD
STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE'S ALSO A FEW SHOWERS
OFF TO THE WEST OF CKV, BUT THINGS ARE QUIET NEAR BNA AND MQY.
THE MAIN TAF STRATEGY IS CIGS. ALL SITES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. A BRIEF WINDOW OF IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TEMPO WAS USED FOR THAT. CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AT 5-10
KTS. ISO TO SCT SHRA IS FORECAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, SO THAT WAS HANDLED WITH A PROB30.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 84 67 84 / 20 50 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 67 83 66 83 / 30 30 20 40
CROSSVILLE 64 78 62 79 / 50 50 30 50
COLUMBIA 67 83 65 83 / 20 50 30 60
COOKEVILLE 66 80 64 81 / 50 50 40 50
JAMESTOWN 64 80 62 81 / 40 40 40 50
LAWRENCEBURG 67 81 65 82 / 20 50 30 60
MURFREESBORO 67 84 65 84 / 30 50 30 50
WAVERLY 67 83 66 83 / 30 30 20 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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