664
FXUS64 KOHX 280401
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1101 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF, LOCALIZED
FLOODING EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE
TN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL THROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ON THURSDAY, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE DAILY CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE ACTIVE PATTERNS PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE
HIGHEST RAIN PROBABILITIES, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40,
WHERE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, CUMULATIVE RAINFALL SINCE THE START OF THE WEEK COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED 2-4 INCHES FOR MANY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS QUITE HUMID, BUT WE
ACTUALLY FIND OURSELVES UNDER WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, SO POPS THE NEXT 24+ HRS ARE VERY LOW AND THUS WE'VE LEFT
RAIN/STORM PROBABILITIES OUT OF THE TAFS. HOWEVER, WE DO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINT SPREADS SHRINK TO
NEAR ZERO AND THE CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND CONTRIBUTE TO FOG
PRODUCTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 87 68 84 66 / 50 30 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 86 67 83 65 / 40 10 30 0
CROSSVILLE 79 64 79 60 / 60 30 40 0
COLUMBIA 85 67 83 65 / 50 20 40 30
COOKEVILLE 81 66 81 62 / 60 40 30 10
JAMESTOWN 81 63 81 58 / 50 50 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 86 67 82 65 / 60 20 40 30
MURFREESBORO 88 67 84 64 / 60 20 40 10
WAVERLY 85 68 83 66 / 40 20 40 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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