445
FXUS64 KOHX 280533
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF, LOCALIZED
FLOODING EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE
TN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL THROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ON THURSDAY, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE DAILY CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE ACTIVE PATTERNS PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE
HIGHEST RAIN PROBABILITIES, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40,
WHERE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, CUMULATIVE RAINFALL SINCE THE START OF THE WEEK COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED 2-4 INCHES FOR MANY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TERMINALS. PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY
DROPPING LESS THAN 1/2SM ARE LOW, BETWEEN 20-30%. HIGH BKN CLOUD
COVER COULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT, BUT SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS CLOUD DECK THINNING OUT IN THE COMING HOURS. MVFR CLOUDS
ARE MOST LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT CSV AND SRB, LIFTING BACK TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
15Z WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW, LESS THAN 20%, SO NO MENTION OF
THIS HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 85 66 84 66 / 20 0 50 80
CLARKSVILLE 84 64 82 65 / 10 0 30 60
CROSSVILLE 80 59 79 63 / 20 0 40 70
COLUMBIA 84 65 82 65 / 30 10 70 80
COOKEVILLE 82 62 82 64 / 20 0 40 70
JAMESTOWN 82 58 82 61 / 10 0 30 70
LAWRENCEBURG 83 65 81 65 / 30 10 70 80
MURFREESBORO 85 65 84 66 / 20 10 60 80
WAVERLY 84 67 82 66 / 30 10 50 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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