592
FXUS64 KOHX 281610
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1110 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF, LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS THURSDAY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
80S, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP IN THE HEAT
OF THE DAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. NORTHERN SECTIONS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN THANKS TO AN INTRUSION OF SUBSIDENCE
AND COLUMN DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AFTER SCATTERED
EVENING SHOWERS SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF, OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET WITH PATCHY FOG.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY LATE DAY, AS A DISTURBANCE WITH A POCKET OF DEEP
MOISTURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM TO HIGH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SLUGGISH
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ONE HALF TO 1 INCH WITH SOME
LOCAL HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SOME TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF, LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE
START OF A PATTERN CHANGE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE DEEP
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PAST
WEEK WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE
NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE CHANGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, IT WILL NOT BE A
QUICK FLIP OF A SWITCH, SO A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY LEVELS NEXT WEEK WILL FEEL MUCH
MORE TOLERABLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
ASIDE FROM A FEW POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
LOW, LESS THAN 30% AND MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN
TERMINALS. CALM WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER 15Z
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 66 85 66 / 10 0 70 80
CLARKSVILLE 87 65 84 66 / 10 0 50 70
CROSSVILLE 83 60 82 63 / 20 0 40 90
COLUMBIA 87 66 84 65 / 30 10 80 70
COOKEVILLE 86 62 84 65 / 10 0 50 90
JAMESTOWN 85 58 84 62 / 10 0 30 90
LAWRENCEBURG 85 66 82 65 / 40 10 80 70
MURFREESBORO 88 65 85 66 / 20 10 60 80
WAVERLY 88 67 84 66 / 20 10 70 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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