233
FXUS64 KOHX 290035
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
735 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 721 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF, LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ECHO-FREE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING,
WITH ONLY A FEW CELLS SHOWING UP NEAR THE TN/AL STATE LINE. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH IS SITUATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER EAST
TENNESSEE. SO THERE'S NOT A GREAT DEAL OF ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
IMPACTING THE MID STATE IN THE NEAR-TERM. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM OHX DOES SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, ALBEIT WEAKLY-SHEARED AND WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. OF NOTE, THE SBCAPE IS A ROBUST 2,331
J/KG WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -6, BUT THE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE IS
A MERE 5.2C/KM. DESPITE A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER, THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 1.50", WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND GIVE US A PWAT+ VALUE OF 130,
MEANING THAT THE OBSERVED PWAT IS 130% OF THE DAILY MEAN. THE 18Z
HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL START TO INCREASE
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
MID STATE AND GIVES US A LITTLE BIT OF LIFT. TONIGHT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG IS A LITTLE LESS NOW THAT THE GROUND
HAS HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS THURSDAY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
80S, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP IN THE HEAT
OF THE DAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. NORTHERN SECTIONS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN THANKS TO AN INTRUSION OF SUBSIDENCE
AND COLUMN DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AFTER SCATTERED
EVENING SHOWERS SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF, OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET WITH PATCHY FOG.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY LATE DAY, AS A DISTURBANCE WITH A POCKET OF DEEP
MOISTURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM TO HIGH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SLUGGISH
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ONE HALF TO 1 INCH WITH SOME
LOCAL HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SOME TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF, LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE
START OF A PATTERN CHANGE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE DEEP
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PAST
WEEK WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE
NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE CHANGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, IT WILL NOT BE A
QUICK FLIP OF A SWITCH, SO A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY LEVELS NEXT WEEK WILL FEEL MUCH
MORE TOLERABLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. IFR/LIFR WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 8 KNOTS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 85 66 81 / 0 70 80 80
CLARKSVILLE 65 84 66 80 / 0 50 70 60
CROSSVILLE 60 82 63 75 / 0 40 90 80
COLUMBIA 66 84 65 81 / 10 80 70 90
COOKEVILLE 62 84 65 78 / 0 50 90 80
JAMESTOWN 58 84 62 77 / 0 30 90 70
LAWRENCEBURG 66 82 65 80 / 10 80 70 90
MURFREESBORO 65 85 66 81 / 10 60 80 80
WAVERLY 67 84 66 81 / 10 70 70 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....MUELLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page