401
FXUS64 KOHX 290333
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1033 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF, LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ECHO-FREE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING,
WITH ONLY A FEW CELLS SHOWING UP NEAR THE TN/AL STATE LINE. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH IS SITUATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER EAST
TENNESSEE. SO THERE'S NOT A GREAT DEAL OF ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
IMPACTING THE MID STATE IN THE NEAR-TERM. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM OHX DOES SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, ALBEIT WEAKLY-SHEARED AND WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. OF NOTE, THE SBCAPE IS A ROBUST 2,331
J/KG WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -6, BUT THE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE IS
A MERE 5.2C/KM. DESPITE A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER, THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 1.50", WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND GIVES US A PWAT+ VALUE OF 130,
MEANING THAT THE OBSERVED PWAT IS 130% OF THE DAILY MEAN. THE 18Z
HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL START TO INCREASE
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
MID STATE AND GIVES US A LITTLE BIT OF LIFT. TONIGHT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG IS A LITTLE LESS NOW THAT THE GROUND
HAS HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
RADAR HAS SWITCHED OVER TO CLEAR AIR MODE OWING TO A DEARTH OF
ACTIVITY, AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THERE
IS QUITE THE DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE SEVERAL DEGREES
GREATER THAN ACROSS MORE NORTHERN PARTS. AT ANY RATE, CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH MORE OR LESS COMBINE FORCES TO PUSH A
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THEREBY
GIVING US MUCH BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. REASONABLY HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
BACK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY (48 HOURS) ARE AVERAGING A MODEST 1/2" TO 1" ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE MID STATE. AND WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LESSER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FROM SUNDAY THOUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, AFTER WHICH DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SO NEXT WEEK'S WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MUCH LESS
ACTIVE THAN THIS WEEK'S PATTERN. AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
7-DAY FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. IFR/LIFR WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 8 KNOTS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 84 67 82 / 0 70 80 70
CLARKSVILLE 65 83 67 81 / 0 70 70 70
CROSSVILLE 60 81 63 76 / 0 40 70 70
COLUMBIA 66 82 66 82 / 10 80 70 80
COOKEVILLE 62 83 65 78 / 0 50 80 70
JAMESTOWN 58 84 63 77 / 0 40 80 60
LAWRENCEBURG 66 80 66 80 / 20 80 70 80
MURFREESBORO 65 84 66 82 / 10 70 80 80
WAVERLY 67 82 67 82 / 10 80 70 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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