187
FXUS64 KOHX 290516
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1216 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF, LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
RADAR HAS SWITCHED OVER TO CLEAR AIR MODE OWING TO A DEARTH OF
ACTIVITY, AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THERE
IS QUITE THE DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE SEVERAL DEGREES
GREATER THAN ACROSS MORE NORTHERN PARTS. AT ANY RATE, CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH MORE OR LESS COMBINE FORCES TO PUSH A
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THEREBY
GIVING US MUCH BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. REASONABLY HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
BACK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY (48 HOURS) ARE AVERAGING A MODEST 1/2" TO 1" ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE MID STATE. AND WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LESSER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FROM SUNDAY THOUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, AFTER WHICH DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SO NEXT WEEK'S WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MUCH LESS
ACTIVE THAN THIS WEEK'S PATTERN. AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
7-DAY FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 30/03Z.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT CIGS AT BNA/MQY/CKV DETERIORATE TO
MVFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
AFTER 00Z WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING SCT TO BKN IFR CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, MVFR CIGS WERE LEFT FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE ENE TO THE ESE/SE BY 15Z AND GENERALLY
REMAIN AT 4-7 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 67 82 64 / 70 80 70 10
CLARKSVILLE 83 67 81 62 / 70 70 70 10
CROSSVILLE 81 63 76 59 / 40 70 70 10
COLUMBIA 82 66 82 64 / 80 70 80 10
COOKEVILLE 83 65 78 61 / 50 80 70 10
JAMESTOWN 84 63 77 57 / 40 80 60 10
LAWRENCEBURG 80 66 80 64 / 80 70 80 10
MURFREESBORO 84 66 82 63 / 70 80 80 10
WAVERLY 82 67 82 64 / 80 70 80 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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