996
FXUS64 KOHX 301600
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1100 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN STARTING TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR THAT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH, AND
STORM COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THIS EVENING, GIVING US A DRY NIGHT.
THE MOISTURE WON'T BE COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT OF THE AREA THOUGH,
AND WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE
MESSAGE IS THE SAME AS FAR AS POTENTIAL HAZARDS GO. WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK SO THERE IS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BRIEF STRONG
STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP WITH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ONE LAST ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AREA, SENDING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR.
SPC'S LATEST OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY DOES HIGHLIGHT MIDDLE TN IN A
MARGINAL RISK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOW CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
DRIER AIR TAKES OVER STARTING TUESDAY, GIVING US DRY AND PLEASANT
DAYS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. MODELS STILL SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LOW
RAIN CHANCES TO THE RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VARYING LIFR TO VFR VISIBILITIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. FROM 14Z-19Z GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. BY AFTERNOON, LOW CHANCES
FOR -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. ONCE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIES OFF, ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION
EARLIER IN THE DAY. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 64 84 66 / 70 10 50 40
CLARKSVILLE 82 62 84 64 / 50 20 30 50
CROSSVILLE 77 58 77 60 / 60 10 50 50
COLUMBIA 83 64 83 64 / 60 10 60 50
COOKEVILLE 80 60 80 63 / 50 10 50 60
JAMESTOWN 79 55 81 60 / 60 0 50 50
LAWRENCEBURG 81 64 81 64 / 60 10 60 40
MURFREESBORO 83 63 83 64 / 60 10 50 40
WAVERLY 83 64 85 65 / 60 20 40 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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