634
FXUS64 KOHX 310434
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN STARTING TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SE. THIS WILL SUPPORT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, BRINGING A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.
SUNDAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS
INCREASED WIND SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST AN MCS LIKE FEATURE
DEVELOPING TO THE NW AND SURGING SE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURES INITIATION TIME AND
PROGRESSION SE SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS FOR
BETTER TIMING OF STORMS. FOR NOW, SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE, LEADING TO MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE LOW 80S TUESDAY INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PLEASANT, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS TIME TO CATCH UP ON ALL THOSE OUTDOOR
CHORES WE'VE BEEN UNABLE TO GET DONE THESE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE,
PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A BIT
WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
TAFS ARE VFR CURRENTLY AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND
THERE'S LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THAT AT SRB AND CSV. BNA AND MQY
COULD ALSO SEE LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAY BREAK THANKS TO RAIN THAT
OCCURRED EARLIER. A TEMPO WAS USED AT THESE SITES. OTHERWISE,
TAFS REFLECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCT CONVECTION WITH LIGHT SE TO
S WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 64 84 66 / 70 10 60 20
CLARKSVILLE 82 62 84 65 / 50 10 20 20
CROSSVILLE 77 58 77 60 / 60 10 50 50
COLUMBIA 83 64 83 64 / 60 10 70 20
COOKEVILLE 80 60 80 63 / 50 10 60 40
JAMESTOWN 79 55 81 60 / 60 0 60 40
LAWRENCEBURG 81 64 81 64 / 60 10 70 20
MURFREESBORO 83 63 83 64 / 60 10 70 30
WAVERLY 83 64 85 66 / 60 20 30 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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